Bet on high valuesīetting on higher value will on average increase your yield, and give you a larger buffer against shifting odds.Īfter you have placed your value bet, the true odds (and probabilities) will continue to shift.
Over time, let’s say after a couple of thousand bets, your results will move closer to the expected value (EV). You shouldn’t evaluate your performance after just a couple of hundred bets. The number of bets placed play an important role to lessen the impact of variance. Read more about expected value, closing line value (CLV) and variance. But if you are a beginner, you might want a smoother ride, so we recommend you to take actions to reduce variance. As long as you understand the concept of value betting and can handle the variance, there is no right or wrong in terms of approach. But it goes both ways as you will also see higher upswings. A high variance means that you get steeper drawdowns.
Variance is a measure of the difference from the expected value (see image).
